The Economy

[can't sit still]

Krazy, you say that none of these "theories" have any evidence. Look around the galaxy. It's quite normal for our type star to expand and turn to a red star. I think that Sol is a G-A-O type. Dont quote me. It will happen.
Most of the other scenarios at Exit Mundi are just end of civilization, not end of earth.
The evidence for clestial impact is all around us. Barringer crater in arizona is the closest to Los Angeles. Vroodefort crater in South Africa has a 300 mile diameter ringwall. Do a search on astroblemes. We've been hit dozens of time by objects big enough to ruin your afternoon.
Reportedly the sauropods were taken out by an impact in the Yucatan peninsula that raised the air temp to <450> degrees F.
The Yellowstone caldera has erupted many times in the past. There is plenty of evidence. They've found ash from Ventura Ca. to Ohio.

I'm well aware of the different branches of the Homo lineage. When I look at George Bush, it's difficult to classify him as a "thinking man" I'll just say erect. But, you're correct,,, it's not accurate.
Science is presenting us with fascinating discoveries every day. I'm happy as a clam to be alive to see it.

[krazy kaju]

Originally Posted by can't sit still

Krazy, you say that none of these "theories" have any evidence. Look around the galaxy. It's quite normal for our type star to expand and turn to a red star. I think that Sol is a G-A-O type. Dont quote me. It will happen.
Most of the other scenarios at Exit Mundi are just end of civilization, not end of earth.
The evidence for clestial impact is all around us. Barringer crater in arizona is the closest to Los Angeles. Vroodefort crater in South Africa has a 300 mile diameter ringwall. Do a search on astroblemes. We've been hit dozens of time by objects big enough to ruin your afternoon.
Reportedly the sauropods were taken out by an impact in the Yucatan peninsula that raised the air temp to <450> degrees F.
The Yellowstone caldera has erupted many times in the past. There is plenty of evidence. They've found ash from Ventura Ca. to Ohio.

I'm well aware of the different branches of the Homo lineage. When I look at George Bush, it's difficult to classify him as a "thinking man" I'll just say erect. But, you're correct,,, it's not accurate.
Science is presenting us with fascinating discoveries every day. I'm happy as a clam to be alive to see it.

... just that our star (aka "The Sun") won't put our solar system in danger for something like a few billion years and no asteroid or comet has been spotted that had the potential to end life "as-we-know-it," at least not by and certainly not on winter solstice 2012.

So radical alarmism, the same kind that existed time and time again throughout history is completely unwarranted.

[can't sit still]

I started this thread about the economy. I'd like to keep it there. Discussions about catastrophe are perhaps entertaining but off topic.
When I said bank meltdown, I should have clarified that it wouldn't be the traditional type. Most of the major banks are insolvent. They won't close. They will just sell themselves off piece-meal. Our financial institutions are being bought up with petro-dollars and Wal Mart-dollars.
You know that Citi has some serious problems when they have to borrow from Abu Dhabai at 11%.
There was 441 billion dollars worth of acquisitions made by foreigners last year. It is expected to increase greatly this year.

Michigan has been in recession for 7 years. Ohio and Minnesota are expected to follow.
The current projections are for 500 billion of write-downs and 2 trillion lost in equity. Since the bond insurers are being downgraded, there is an additional 3.5 trillion that is in jeopardy.
The problem comes in because many funds like pension funds are only allowed to invest in AAA rated securities. When a bond insurer is re-rated, their insured bonds are down-rated also. This means that the fund must automatically sell.
As consumers cut back on purchases, companies will sell less. This will result in a fall of their Price to Earnings ratio. This also causes sell-offs.
The world markets got a bit shook up yesterday. They had to close the Indian market after it lost 8.9% in the first few minutes.
Much of stock sales are "black box" sales. They're done by a computer at a certain price level. This causes a lot of sales to occurr in a very short time. When this has happened before, they have had to close the market.

Bush has a stimulus plan. After millions of good jobs were sent offshore, he plans to revive the economy with $140 billion. Wall Street freaked when they heard that and the FED had to do an emergency interest reduction this morning. The air of panic from Washington is all too palpable.
People are refusing to borrow any more money and banks are refusing to loan money carelessly. GOV is petrified that people will stop consuming so GOV will just send you some cash. Not literally of course, but GOV wants you to BUY!!!.

Keynes has been tossed to the trash heap and Mises is in charge. There is a worldwide $500 trillion supply of derrivatives looking for a safe haven. Not 1 single junk-bond has been sold since August. Nobody is in a hurry to invest in mortgages. Bonds are unwinding because super SIVs were leveraged at 100-1. As SIVs unwind, they take down everything. Commodities were doing good but are turning down now. Even oil is dropping a bit.
$500 trillion and nowhere to park it.
Argentina and Russia crashed. Japan crashed after their property bubble burst. The US has invited a crash by stealing from the rest of the world. We took liar-loans and rated them AAA.
Greenspan held interest rates unreasonably low to goose the economy so Bush could continue with military expansion.
You and I didn't cause this, but I imagine that we will be the ones to pay. Each of us owes over $441,000
Russia and Argentina defaulted. Should the US default, I imagine that it will be harder to but oil.
I agree with the post above that we should try to concentrate on the positive in the world. I also believe that we should try to help each other and keep each other informed.
Dan

[chad3006]

There was an emergency fed funds rate cut yesterday and more are expected.

[can't sit still]

There is plenty of blame to go around. Clinton nullified the Glass-Steagal act in return for contributions from bankers.
Bush did more or less the same. It didn't help the US when he gave "most favored nation" trading status to China. THAT sure didn't help our balance of trade. Consumers bought stuff they couldn't afford. The US military spent half our budget, both seen and unseen.

Even now, with the Pentagon trying to cut programs, congress is refusing. They don't want any pork taken out of their district.
The comptroller-general David Walker said in an interview that if the US doesn't get it's financial house in order, "we will lose the country in 4 or 5 years"

It remains to be seen if predictions will come true. BUT, much damage has already happened. The uncontested maestro of this damage is the maestro himself Sir Alan Greenspan. If you care to read a long list of his distructive influences, here it is; FS Editorial: "The Financial Tsunami Part III" by F. William Engdahl 01/23/2008

I find it difficult to realisticly dispute the comptroller-general.

The most important question is wether or not the next administration will slash spending in a monumental manner or will they march us to the brink.
Clinton has promised us universal health coverage. The Reps have promised us unending war.

What will it take to get the next admin to do a complete turn around?
Seeing as how this is a philosophy forum, I should mention philosophy as it relates to our Pres. Ron Paul Online - Pathocracy - Our Global Disease
Dan

[can't sit still]

For those of you who keep an eye on the banks, there are 2 very nice graphs on this page US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Free Website They should make it easier for you to make informed decisions as to where to invest, Dan

[Justin]

yeah yeah. Politics isn't something I get into much because as an American it makes me ill to see what we do to our own people.

Let's not forget who's in control of the American people... the Federal Reserve. Money money money that's the philosophy behind America and it's people support it blindly. I'll leave it at that.

[linux_user]

The worrying thing about the Federal Reserve is that it's PRIVATELY OWNED!!

As always, a link for your perusal....

YouTube - David Icke-World Banking System (pt 1 of 2)

Brett.

[chad3006]

Yes, it is privately owned. I worked in banking for years and got to tour the Federal Reserve in Dallas. Real people are rarely allowed in their 10 story vault-forklift-like robots retrieve money on command. Anyone seen "America Freedom to Fascism"? www.freedomtofascism.com/

[can't sit still]

The FED , for all it's obvious evils, is only creating "money" at the rate of 15% a year,,,,, up from it's normal 5%. China creates at 84%,,, Russia at <50>%
The banks, through the use of "fractional reserve banking" and the creation of derrivatives have gone into competition with our central bank, the FED.
The FED made a reasonable attempt to limit "money" creation. It's true that they maintained the interest rate too low for too long. That's another issue.
The banks, on the other hand, got into competition with each other to create liquidity as fast as they could get people to sign on the dotted line.
If you look at the graphs on the link that I posted above, you'll see that the banks created liquidity so fast they made the FED look laggard.

It's true that they only created this liqudity in limited areas, but that was enough to throw the system out of whack.
Historically only <80>% of Americans have been able to afford to own a home. The percentage went up to about 85%.

The homebuilders should have been the first to notice that. If real wages have been declining since 1971, how could the percentage of eligible homebuyers have been increasing?
Well, as it turns out,,, they weren't eligible. The homebuilders had to have known about the liar-loans. They just figured that GOV would bail them out.
Greenspan said "with new technologies, we can offer loans to a larger segment of the population" He is/was way too smart to say to say "we're going to offer loans to people who can't possbly pay them back".

The US is now in a race to deflate it's curency before it's debt instruments and real estate deflate to their correct value.
It's not likely that they can win the race. With off-shoring of jobs, who's going to buy these houses before they lose another 25%?
78% of the economy is driven by consumer spending. The consumer is in no mood to take on more debt.
Keynesian economics works OK in a world without limits.
The banks made a fatal error thinking that they could rob everyone and never reach an end.
A higher and higher percentage of our wealth is made by machines. GOV figured that they could bleed the middle class interminably because the wealth was produce mostly by machines.
Well, everything has it's limits. We seem to be approaching the limit of sustainable bloodletting.
Dan